Exploring the patterns and influencing factors of emerging technology impact: a case study of digital medical technology

Abstract

Introduction. Impact, as an intrinsic attribute of emerging technologies, plays a crucial role in their identification and understanding. Traditional citation metrics, while reflective of impact magnitude, fail to explain its nature.

Method. Addressing this deficiency, this study categorizes the impact of emerging technologies into internal and external field, as well as impacts on basic versus applied development. With a focus on digital medical technology, this research investigates these four distinct impact patterns and their determinants. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis on patent records from the Derwent innovations index (DII), the study examines how temporal novelty, innovation novelty, growth, and uncertainty influence both the magnitude and patterns of technological impact.

Analysis. Analysis shows a U-shaped relationship between temporal novelty and impact, indicating that older technologies gain influence through cumulative effects, while emerging technologies attract attention early on due to their pronounced novelty. Additionally, innovation novelty positively correlates with impact, underscoring its critical role in the effectiveness of emerging technologies. In contrast, growth rates and uncertainty demonstrate inconsistent effects.

Conclusions. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers, investors, and R&D managers in strategically advancing the development and deployment of emerging technologies.